Monday briefing: ​How much longer can Nigel Farage survive amid ongoing scandals?

Hello. There’ll be a tetchy postmortem taking place at Reform HQ this morning. Its party conference appears to have been a disaster, as scandal once more dogs Nigel Farage and his coterie.

Instead of policy announcements and set-piece speeches generating attention, all eyes remain on that footage: in which senior Reform figures – Farage included – appear to play fast and loose (again) with legal process and parliamentary procedure.

Two big names have already been suspended, raising further credibility questions for the party and Farage himself – claiming plausible deniability is tricky when you’re caught on camera.

But what was the mood among the party faithful in Birmingham? And, as the slew of allegations continue, do Reform voters – or its leadership – even care? For today’s First Edition, Guardian political editor Pippa Crerar, who was at party conference, walked me through the significance of this latest scandal. That’s after a roundup of this weekend’s other big stories.

Weekend roundup

1. Germany | The populist, far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has surged to a resounding victory in a crucial state election in Germany, but fell just short of winning a majority in its quest to form the country’s first far-right state government since the second world war.

2. Ukraine | US peace envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner headed to Kyiv following talks on Saturday in Moscow. The White House said they “plans for next steps” towards ending the war.

3. US-Israel war on Iran | The US military said Saturday it struck three Iranian oil tankers after US navy warships came under missile attack, further escalating tensions in the region.

4. UK news | Dozens of people dressed in black and wearing balaclavas blocked the road at the port of Dover, chanting “England til I die,” and forcing closures in both directions on Saturday. On Sunday, hundreds of far-right activists descended on Portsmouth, where a small boat with 140 asylum seekers on board was intercepted.

5. Brexit | Travellers to the EU could face renewed border queues as flexibility measures for the bloc’s entry-exit system officially come to an end – although sources have indicated that biometric checks won’t be enforced by some member states.

In depth: ‘It definitely felt like the leadership was shaken’

What a difference a year makes. Just 12 months ago, Reform was riding high in the polls – hovering at 30%, sometimes above – and pitching itself as a government waiting in the wings as Starmer’s beleaguered premiership faltered further.

After last year’s jaunt (also in Birmingham), Reform basked in a post-conference glow. There was consensus among politicos that an “atmosphere of jubilation” had prevailed. Unions panicked about Labour support leaking to Reform. Big name defections were in the offing. The nation’s bout of Farage-fever appeared to be incurable.

This year, Reform needed a repeat performance. After an injurious summer for Reform in which scandal has proved impossible to shake, Farage’s approval ratings had plummeted. Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street had offered Labour a (modest) bounce and knocked Reform from the polling top spot. Farage’s party felt desperately in need of a reset.

It wasn’t to be. Reform activists and bigwigs instead ventured home from Birmingham yesterday after another damaging few days, with focus firmly on Farage’s “damaged leadership” and a party “in crisis”.

It didn’t start well. On the eve of conference kick-off, footage was released of an undercover sting. Members of Reform’s top team were filmed by reporters appearing to plot ways to avoid strict electoral laws on foreign donations.

Dan Jukes, a senior aide to Farage, and James Orr, Reform’s head of policy, apparently plotted routes to circumvent electoral law to secure foreign party donations worth hundreds of thousands of pounds. Jukes appeared to suggest this could be done by channelling American cash through a British citizen.

The footage also showed polling costing £30,000 was commissioned by Reform and paid for by a reporter posing as a wealthy American. The polling was beneficial to Reform, and widely publicised on newspaper front pages, but the party failed to disclose their role in its production, or the fact it was paid for by a US donor.

“The reality is we could easily get away with it”, Orr told the undercover reporters. Meanwhile, the footage also shows Farage referring to the polling as “bang for your buck,” and thanking the fake donors after they explain their plot to covertly provide funding to the party – which would break the law on party donations.

The story has dominated ever since, despite Reform’s best efforts. The police and Electoral Commission are both investigating.

Vibe in the room

Pippa was at the Reform conference, where she found its supporters to be unfazed and fiercely loyal. “The mood in the conference zone was actually very buoyant,” she tells me. “It’s important that we distinguish between how Reform activists and the party itself feel about allegations of financial wrongdoing, and the wider public.”

Inside the conference hall and at fringe events, Pippa heard similar refrains repeatedly: that Reform is the “victim of a hoax” and “an establishment plot”; and that these stories are “skewed by the left-wing media.” If anything, Pippa found, among Reform’s base these allegations “are making them even more committed to Farage and the Reform cause”, as has been the case with Trump supporters.

The mood is different at the top. A defiant “I have done nothing wrong” tone had certainly been struck by Farage et al in recent months, which was echoed again during his keynote conference speech on Saturday.

But while Farage may have trotted out his beloved blame “the establishment” defence, beneath the rhetoric, Pippa has seen positions start to shift among Reform’s upper echelons. Yesterday, Farage admitted the row “looks bad”.

“It is becoming quite clear to the party leadership that the wider public aren’t happy, and it’s causing Reform problems,” says Pippa.

Who got chop

At 2:30am on Friday morning, both Orr and Jukes were swiftly removed from their positions. These weren’t low-ranking, incidental officials: both had been critical to Farage’s political project.

Jukes’s departure in particular is a massive blow to Farage. The pair are said to have something of a father-son relationship, having worked together since Jukes was a fledgling Ukip press officer. “For maybe 15 years, Jukes has been by Farage’s side as a media spokesperson and his closest aide,” says Pippa. “He has been intricately involved in every step of Reform’s development.”

Orr, meanwhile, is a Cambridge academic close to far-right politicians like Viktor Orbán, and shares many hard-right views, among them being totally opposed to abortion rights. He became Reform’s head of policy in February after much criticism was raised last year at Reform’s lacklustre platform. “Orr provided Reform with a deeply ideological intellectual heft,” says Pippa. When she arrived in Birmingham on Thursday, Reform chiefs were “boasting about how thorough and comprehensive” their policy platform had become during Orr’s tenure.

Pippa spoke to Farage on Thursday and he appeared “characteristically bullish” about the allegations. By the end of the weekend, “it definitely felt like the leadership was shaken.” It’s why Jukes and Orr had to go – losing them both will cause Farage pain, but “Farage was very quickly working to shore up his own position.”

Had no choice

Polling doesn’t show Reform is on the brink of annihilation. Far from it: despite a summer of scandal it remains a serious electoral force, roughly equal to the Tories. Still, it’s a steep decline from where the party sat just months ago often close to 10 points clear of any rival. And while Reform loyalists might show little concern as sleaze oozes from the party, Farage isn’t content with being leader of the third or even second party: he wants a route to power.

Unlike US president, Donald Trump, who won by appealing to his Maga base, to win the keys to 10 Downing Street, Farage will need to secure support from beyond his devotees. “These ‘Reform-curious’ voters saw the party as a potential home while there was widespread dissatisfaction with Labour and the Tories,” says Pippa. Burnham’s arrival, Badenoch 2.0, and a stream of Reform scandals has – temporarily, at least – offered Labour and the Tories some reprieve. “Without these voters, it’s not just that Farage can’t win a majority. It’s a case of Reform not even being the biggest party and therefore able to negotiate a way into government.”

Give away too much ground, however, and Farage risks alienating his most loyal supporters, with Rupert Lowe and Restore circling.

A fine balancing act now faces Farage’s team. “He needs to give a nod to the membership that Reform hasn’t done anything wrong,” says Pippa, “while making sure that they appear to be taking these allegations seriously.”

It’s a difficult bind for Farage, who also has his own alleged indiscretions to grapple with. “As things stand it’s not looking great for Farage,” says Pippa. “There is speculation as to whether he’ll even stick it out. He says he will, but we know his family are reluctant, and we know he’s under intense pressure.” It’s far from guaranteed, she says, that he’ll be at Reform’s helm come the next election.

That’s not to say he should be counted out yet. Farage is a political cockroach, or as Pippa puts it slightly more flatteringly, “he has spent a career defying political gravity.”

The week to come

• Monday | Jon Healey will deliver his first major speech as chancellor outlining the government’s plan for economic growth.

• Thursday | New York fashion week, the first of the world’s biggest fashion events, kicks off – with Paris, Milan and London fashion weeks to follow.

• Friday | The second reading of the assisted dying bill will take place in the House of Commons.

What else we’ve been enjoying

• Teachers undoubtedly have it hard these days – so Nell Frizzells’ surprising, beautifully nostalgic piece, on becoming a teacher in her 40s, felt like a tonic. Poppy

• ​People travel from all over the world to stand on the “skim of destiny” and take part in the World Stone Skimming Championship, I enjoyed Patrick Greenfield’s entertaining roundup of the tournament. Katy Vans, newsletter team

• I enjoyed Polly Hudson’s column on how to cut endless natter short – and will be using Forbes’s very good three phrases in future to do just that. Poppy

Sport

Football | Mikel Arteta warned that Arsenal are capable of hitting even greater heights after the champions sent a statement to their title rivals by fighting back from a goal down to beat Chelsea.

Formula One | Kimi Antonelli won the Italian Grand Prix for Mercedes at Monza, coming back from 19th on the grid to take his first win at his home race.

Tennis | Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz beat Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 to move into the last eight at Flushing Meadows.

The front pages

“Families scramble to secure Send plans ahead of ministers’ reforms”, is the Guardian’s front page today.

The i Paper leads with “Blunkett’s plea to Burnham: Find the money to fund end-of-life care”, the Telegraph writes “Scrap the triple-lock, businesses tell Healey”, the Times says “Just 1% of asylum pleas are genuine, says insider”, and the Mail has “Labour ‘chickens out’ on curbing migrant rights”.

The FT says “Europe is losing battle to halt Russia’s ‘hybrid’ war, defence officials warn”, and the Express has “‘Weak’ Britain a prime target for Russian sabotage attacks”. Metro’s front page is “I was Reform attack victim” and the Mirror has “A&E heroes under attack”.

Today in Focus

Why Meta started losing in court

For years, the investigative journalist Katy McQue has been reporting on the potential harms Meta’s platforms pose to children. Yet, as she explains to Annie Kelly, despite the mountain of evidence compiled by journalists, prosecutors, bereaved families and others, it has been nearly impossible to bring Meta and other social media companies to court. Finally, in 2026, something seems to have changed.

Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Andrea Malone’s 94‑year‑old mother drove to buy a vacuum cleaner she had seen on sale, only to find her local store had sold out. Staff told her the nearest available one was an hour away, a trip she couldn’t manage.

As she stood there disappointed, a stranger in the queue offered to drive to the other store, collect the vacuum, deliver it to her home and even assemble it. The woman followed through the next day, and the two later met for coffee. Only afterwards did Andrea’s mother discover her helper was renowned Australian basketballer Michele Timms.

This unexpected kindness shows that generosity and community spirit still thrive, even among celebrities.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

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